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Stratosphere-troposphere coupling on subseasonal timescales - CentAUR
Lee, S. PhD thesis, University of Reading. It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite stratospheric tropospheric exchange phd thesis this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: Variability in the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex can significantly influence the behaviour and predictability of wintertime tropospheric weather conditions on subseasonal timescales lead-times between stratospheric tropospheric exchange phd thesis weeks and 2 months.
This thesis improves our understanding of tropospheric processes leading to subseasonal stratospheric variability and how to characterise the tropospheric impact of stratospheric variability in ways useful for subseasonal stratospheric tropospheric exchange phd thesis. First, the predictability onset of the February sudden stratospheric warming is linked to the occurrence of synoptic-scale anticyclonic wave breaking in the northeast Atlantic.
This event is diagnosed through the Scandinavia-Greenland dipole pattern in mean sea-level pressure. Analysis of previous cases shows the Scandinavia-Greenland pattern is associated with significantly enhanced vertically propagating wave activity and a subsequently weakened polar vortex.
The representation of the Scandinavia-Greenland pattern in hindcasts from the S2S Prediction Project database is then analysed. Substantial biases are found in the representation of the pattern in the troposphere and its relationship with a weakened polar vortex.
These biases likely contribute to limiting subseasonal stratospheric forecast skill and highlight the need to improve the representation and predictability of the Scandinavia-Greenland pattern for improved polar vortex forecasts.
Next, stratospheric tropospheric exchange phd thesis, the downward influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere over North America is characterised using four weather regimes, defined through clustering analysis. Significant observed differences in regime behaviour are found for three of the four regimes depending on the strength of the lower-stratospheric vortex.
By considering the empirical orthogonal functions which define the regimes, a linear theory is developed to explain how changes in the stratospheric vortex strength can lead to regime transitions. The theory is supported by the results from a set of stratospheric relaxation model experiments. These results provide a framework to explain how uncertainty or improvements in the subseasonal stratospheric forecast can translate to changes in large-scale tropospheric forecasts over North America.
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Stratosphere-troposphere coupling on subseasonal timescales. PhD thesis, University of Reading Text - Published Version · Restricted to Repository staff only until 26 October This may affect its availability. Deposit Details. Date Deposited: 23 Nov Date item deposited into CentAUR Last Modified: 25 Nov Date item last modified. Page navigation UoR Home CentAUR Home Latest Additions Browse. See also Open Access Research Data Library ORRB Opening Research blog. Footer navigation © University of Reading.
Text - Published Version · Restricted to Repository staff only until 26 October Text - Thesis Deposit Form · Restricted to Repository staff only · The Copyright of this document has not been checked yet. Charlton-Perez, A. and Furtado, J, stratospheric tropospheric exchange phd thesis.
Haruki Nishimura's PhD Thesis Defense
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